Quotes of the Day

Say what you will about Uzbek President Islam Karimov, but he is not afraid to play hardball. He recently imposed restrictions on the use by U.S. forces of Karshi-Khanabad air base in southeast Uzbekistan. The base is crucial to U.S. operations in Afghanistan, but a ban on nighttime flights was introduced last week as Karimov's regime came under harsh criticism from the U.S. State Department and the E.U. over Uzbek authorities' bloody crackdown on protesters in Andijan in May. Karimov refused to give in to calls for an international investigation of the massacre that left hundreds dead.

Washington press reports indicated that the U.S. Defense Department tried to block an investigation, in hopes of placating Karimov and potentially regaining access to the air base. But Karimov seems unlikely to switch back. "Easing the ban now would undermine Karimov's position at home," says Andrei Grozin, head of the Central Asia department at the Moscow-based Institute for Commonwealth of Independent States Studies. "He simply cannot afford it."

Karimov also appears to be leaning toward Russia, which fears unrest in Central Asia, as a strategic partner. "Karimov has no other option," says Muhammed Salih, an exiled Uzbek opposition leader who chairs the Erk democratic party and plans to visit the U.S. later this month. "Russia and China are more important partners for him now than the U.S. or Britain. There has been growing and leadership-propelled anti-U.S. sentiment in Uzbekistan."

Still, it's a high-risk game, because "if Karimov loses U.S. support, it would further weaken his position," Salih says.

• VALERIA KORCHAGINA
• Uzbek President Karimov restricts U.S. access to an important air base